US Dollar on Pace to Drop Every Day this Week
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The US Dollar has hit fresh session and weekly lows following the releases of the Consumer Price Index and the Advance Retail Sales reports for September. Although price pressures increased relative to the prior month, they did not meet expectations, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The inflation data is particularly disappointing as the rise was in part expected to be fueled by supply chain issues following Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. That headline inflation is running soft relative to expectations even amid what should be a tighter energy supply picture has reinforced the FOMC’s concern (as evidenced by the September meeting minutes on Wednesday) that inflation will remain persistently low over the next few years.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Friday, October 13, 2017 – North American Releases
Now that the bulk of key US economic data is in the rearview mirror, traders will turn to the few remaining prints and speeches on the day before closing their books for the week. Confidence data is due out at 10 EDT/14 GMT, although these figures (sentiment generally) haven’t had much of an impact on price action: constituting ‘soft data,’ confidence readings don’t reveal insight into real economic activity, or ‘hard data.’ Accordingly, the preliminary October US UofM Confidence report shouldn’t do much for the US Dollar. Instead, three Fed speakers on the docket for later in the day – including Jerome Powell, who isa front-runner for the Fed Chair – will be far more important to FX markets.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Friday, October 13, 2017
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: Spot Gold
Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 80.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.22 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.9% lower than yesterday and 14.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.7% higher than yesterday and 1.1% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “US Dollar Pressured After Energy-Driven CPI Print Disappoints” by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research
- “Trading Outlook: USD-pairs, Cross-rates, Gold & More” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Webinar: UK Markets Brace for Volatility” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “US Dollar, Hanging on by a Thread, Turns to CPI & Retail Sales” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Bullish, but Cautiously So” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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